Blinded By Certainty

In reality, very little in our lives is absolutely certain. We can be certain the sun will rise in the east and set in the west. We can be certain death will follow life. And we can be fairly certain that my beloved Cleveland Browns will inevitably let me down.

But we’re certain about a lot more things than we should be. 

A University of Michigan study by Brendan Nylan and Jason Reifler shows that the more certain we are about particular ideas or situations the more we become blind to facts that discredit our certainty. In fact, in many cases opposing facts are not just ignored but actually strengthen our prior beliefs. 

Here’s a brief summary from the Boston Globe:

Most of us like to believe that our opinions have been formed over time by careful, rational consideration of facts and ideas, and that the decisions based on those opinions, therefore, have the ring of soundness and intelligence. In reality, we often base our opinions on our beliefs, which can have an uneasy relationship with facts. And rather than facts driving beliefs, our beliefs can dictate the facts we chose to accept. They can cause us to twist facts so they fit better with our preconceived notions. Worst of all, they can lead us to uncritically accept bad information just because it reinforces our beliefs. This reinforcement makes us more confident we’re right, and even less likely to listen to any new information.

The excellent book “How Minds Change” by David McRaney covers similar points and is well worth your time.

A lot of the research focuses primarily on our political viewpoints, but while reading I couldn’t help but think of people I’ve come across in the business world who were unbelievably certain about their viewpoints based on information or experiences that seemed less than obvious to me. I immediately thought of dozens of people, and I bet you’re thinking of many such people now.

In fact, it was so easy for me to think of other people that fit the bill that I couldn’t help but think the man in the mirror was not immune to this universal human fallacy.

In my experience in the business world, we often assume with undue certainty that past experiences will reflect future possibilities. We say things like, “We tried that before and it didn’t work” or “I know what our customers want.” While our past experiences are extremely valuable and are very important for informing future decisions, we simply don’t have enough of them to blindly ignore changes in circumstances, timing, and other variables that could significantly alter results for a new effort.

So how do we overcome our natural instincts in order to make better business decisions?

1. Be aware of the problems with certainty
   You’ve read this far, so maybe you’re awareness is already active. I know that I am reassessing all the things I “know” to try to truly separate what is fact and what is assumption. I very much value all my experience, and I know I make better decisions because of what I’ve seen and heard along the way. But I want to make doubly sure that assumptions I make based on past experiences are tested and validated before I turn them into absolute fact.

2. Actively seek alternate points-of-view
   In my experience, the combination of multiple experiences provides a much more solid foundation for decision making than basing decisions on singular past experiences. Techniques I’ve used, like The Monkey Cage Sessions, are based on the incorporating viewpoints from people in different functional areas and levels of the organization. While it’s acceptable after consideration to ultimately discount data or opinions that are in opposition to a decision I might make, I want to be sure I’m not simply rationalizing opposing information or viewpoints solely because they are different from my biases.

3. Envision alternate scenarios
   I addressed this some in a previous post, “Obscure and pregnant with conflicting meanings”, where I discussed a technique I called “pre-mortem.” Whenever we make decisions, we have a tendency to assume our decisions are going to produce the best possible results. These pre-mortem techniques have us imagine worst case scenarios to try to dissect potential problems before they occur.

4. Be flexible and plan for contingencies
   Once we admit we’re not 100% certain, we can move forward with plans that are flexible and able to react to changing conditions. To be clear, I’m not saying we should just be wishy-washy and not make clear decisions. What I’m saying is that we should be open to new facts and be sure we have created an environment that allows us to change course when warranted.

If we’re aware of our certainty biases and take active steps to address them, I believe we can significantly improve our decision-making in our businesses.